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Real-Yield Regime Gategold's most reliable relationship, used as a filter

Evidence: ModerateProfessionalGold · Macro regime

Gold pays nothing. Holding it costs you whatever a safe inflation-protected bond would have paid, so when that real yield rises, gold becomes more expensive to hold, and when it falls, cheaper. The inverse relationship between gold and real yields is the most durable thing anyone has found about the gold price.

This strategy does not try to forecast real yields. It takes the direction they have already moved in over the past month and uses it as a gate: gold longs only while real yields are falling, shorts only while they are rising, and no trades at all while they go sideways.

This page is about a driver of the gold price, not a chart shape. The driver is what the evidence is for — the entry trigger is ordinary and interchangeable, and swapping it for another one in this library does not damage the idea.

Category
Gold · Macro regime
Timeframe
D1 gate · H4 execution · positions held days
Suitable pairs
XAUUSD primarily · XAGUSD with a wider stop
Session
Gate read at the daily close · entries in London or New York
Indicators / tools
10-year TIPS yield (or your data provider's real-yield series) · EMA(20) on gold · ATR(14)

Valid setup

GD-01 · REAL-YIELD REGIME GATE — VALID SETUP XAUUSD · D1 · the entry is ordinary; what makes it a trade is which regime it happens in LONG 4224.90 4285.11 4345.32 4405.53 4465.74 4525.95 4586.16 REAL YIELDS RISING — no gold longs allowed REAL YIELDS FALLING OVER 20 DAYS — long gate open no target — trail, and exit when the gate flips 1R EMA(20) — the trailing exit ENTRY = continuation trigger, inside the gate STOP = 1.5 × ATR(14) below the pullback low 1 2 3 gate opens 4392.00 4312.40 ① A perfectly good chart setup — skipped, wrong regime ② Real yields turn down over the 20-day window ③ Only now is a gold long permitted at all ④ Ordinary continuation entry — the gate is the edge ⑤ Stop from gold's own ATR, not a fixed dollar amount ⑥ Out when the gate flips, profit or not

Exact rules

Entry

  • Gate: the 10-year real yield is below where it was twenty trading days ago. That is the long gate. Above, and only shorts are allowed. Within a few basis points either way, nothing is allowed.
  • The real-yield series is not in MetaTrader. You will have to feed it in — a daily CSV from your data provider is enough, and the bot reads it once per day.
  • Entry trigger inside the gate: any trend continuation entry you already trust. The library's daily pullback page works; so does a twenty-day channel break.
  • One gold position at a time. Gold is one bet, however many timeframes you have found it on.

Stop loss

  • 1.5 × ATR(14) beyond the entry structure.
  • Gold's ATR is large in dollar terms and people size it as if it were a currency pair. Work the lot size out from the ATR every time.
  • Risk 0.5%–1%.

Take profit / exit

  • No fixed target. Trail the EMA(20) on the daily close.
  • Exit when the gate flips, regardless of the position's profit. The reason for being in the trade has gone even if the chart has not noticed yet.
  • Do not re-enter the same day the gate flips back. Gates that flicker are noise in the yield series, not a regime.

Build Real-Yield Regime Gate

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Trading carries risk and most retail accounts lose money. Nothing on this page is financial advice or a recommendation to trade. The chart is an illustration of the rules on constructed candles — it is not a record of a trade and not a backtest.