Showing 1–7 of 7 matching strategies
Evidence: ModerateProfessional
Structure Break Failure
the break that turns out to be the topA structure break is supposed to confirm continuation, which is exactly what makes a failed one informative. Price takes out the last swing high, everyone treats it as confirmation, and then it closes back below.
H1 or H4Market structure · Reversal
Evidence: WeakProfessional
Accumulation to Expansion
a long quiet range that ends in one directionA market spends a long time in a narrow range, sweeps one side of it without following through, and then leaves in the other direction. The sweep is read as the last of the sellers being absorbed before the move.
H4 range · H1 executionMarket structure · Regime
Evidence: StrongProfessional
London 16:00 Fix Flow
month-end rebalancingOn the last business day of the month, large asset managers rebalance their currency hedges, and that rebalancing executes at the 16:00 London fix.
M1 primary · M5 secondaryOrder Flow · Scheduled Event
Evidence: ModerateProfessional
Macro-Announcement Jump Continuation
the adjustment, not the jumpOn a scheduled macro release the exchange rate jumps immediately. That jump is not your trade — the adjustment after it is.
M1 primary · M5 secondaryOrder Flow · Event
Evidence: ModerateProfessional
Value Area Retest
the prices where the day actually did businessInstead of asking when the market traded, a volume profile asks where: how much activity happened at each price. The result is usually a fat middle where most business was done and thin tails where price passed through quickly.
Profile built on the previous day · executed on M15Order flow · Volume profile
Evidence: StrongProfessional
Microstructure Reversion
the spread's own footprintIn an efficient market, the act of trading leaves a trace. Buyers lift the ask and sellers hit the bid, so observed prices alternate between the two sides even when nothing about the instrument has changed. Roll showed this produces negative serial correlation in consecutive price changes — and that the size of it measures the spread itself.
M1 execution · M5 for contextScalping · Mean reversion
Evidence: StrongProfessional
Surprise-Scaled Reaction
the number against the forecast, not the numberA release on its own carries no information. What moves price is the gap between what printed and what was expected — and the size of that gap, measured against how large surprises usually are for that release.
M1 execution · the surprise computed before the releaseNews · Event