Strategy library

Rules you can check before you trade them.

Every strategy carries its exact rules, an annotated chart of the setup, the research behind why it should work at all — and the conditions under which you should not take it.

Showing 1–5 of 5 matching strategies

Evidence: StrongProfessional

Classic Currency Carry

long the high rate, short the low one

Borrow in a currency with a low interest rate, hold one with a high rate, and pocket the difference. Uncovered interest parity says the high-rate currency should fall by exactly enough to cancel that out. It does not — a finding so robust it has its own name, the forward premium puzzle, and so old it is now approaching fifty years of replication.

Monthly rebalance · positions held for monthsCarry · Cross-sectional
Evidence: StrongProfessional

Volatility-Filtered Carry

switch it off when the market gets loud

Carry's losses are not spread evenly through time. They arrive in bursts, and those bursts coincide with rising global currency volatility — which is the single most useful thing anyone has discovered about managing this trade.

Monthly rebalance · volatility checked weeklyCarry · Risk-managed
Evidence: WeakBeginner

Single-Pair Swap Harvest

the retail version, and what it really pays

The version almost every retail trader actually runs: pick one pair with a positive swap, hold it, collect the nightly credit. It is in the library because people trade it, and the page exists mostly to be honest about what it is.

D1 · held weeks to monthsCarry · Single instrument
Evidence: ModerateProfessional

Rate Expectation Repricing

trade the change in the forecast, not the rate

A central bank's current rate is known to everybody and priced into everything. What moves a currency is the change in what the market expects the rate to be in six or twelve months — and that expectation moves constantly, in observable ways, between meetings.

Monthly ranking · held weeksRates · Macro
Evidence: StrongProfessional

Carry and Momentum Combined

two premia that fail at different times

Carry and momentum are both well-evidenced in currencies, and — this is the useful part — they lose money at different times. Carry unwinds when volatility spikes; momentum suffers in choppy, reversing markets. Holding both is not twice the risk, it is a meaningfully smoother version of either.

Monthly rebalanceCarry · Multi-factor

What the evidence rating means

Strong

The mechanism has peer-reviewed, FX-specific research behind it.

Moderate

The mechanism is sound, but at least one step of it is untested.

Weak

Practitioner literature only — no published research supports the mechanism.

It rates the mechanism — whether there is published research explaining why the market should behave this way. It does not rate profit. Strong does not mean the trade will work. None of these have been run on our own account, and no page here shows a backtest figure.

What the level means

Beginner

One instrument, one timeframe, every rule visible on the chart.

Intermediate

Several conditions have to line up, and execution starts to matter.

Professional

Needs an outside data feed, a basket, real order flow, or an unusual tolerance for lumpy losses.

The level describes what it takes to run the strategy, not how well it works. Several Beginner pages are better evidenced than several Professional ones — a basket carry trade is Professional because it needs eight currencies and a swap table, not because it is cleverer than buying a pullback.

Trading carries risk and most retail accounts lose money. Nothing in this library is financial advice or a recommendation to trade. The charts are illustrations of the rules on constructed candles — they are not records of trades and not backtests.